The Market's Thanksgiving Feast: More Gravy Than Meat?
The stock market's recent surge, especially during Thanksgiving week, has investors feeling… well, thankful. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all popped, riding what some are calling their best Thanksgiving week performances in years. But before we start carving up the profits, let's take a closer look at what's actually on the table.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 315 points, a 0.7% increase. The S&P 500 mirrored that gain, also up 0.7%. The Nasdaq Composite wasn't far behind, climbing 0.8%. These are solid numbers, no doubt. The S&P and Dow are enjoying their best Thanksgiving week since 2012, and the Nasdaq is having its best since 2008. (That '08 comparison is interesting, given what *else* happened in 2008).
But what's fueling this rally? According to Granite Bay Wealth Management's Paul Stanley, it's a combination of factors. Economic data is providing "more visibility on the state of the economy," and the inflation picture and job market "are not as troublesome as feared." Essentially, the market is breathing a sigh of relief that things aren't as bad as predicted.
Rate Cut Rally: Fueled by Hope, Not Data?
Rate Cut Hopes: The Real Driver?
Here's where things get interesting. The article mentions that weekly jobless claims and durable goods data haven't shifted December rate-cut expectations. These expectations are hovering around 85%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Could the *anticipation* of a rate cut be the primary driver of this rally, more so than the actual economic data? It's like smelling the Thanksgiving turkey cooking all day – the anticipation is often better than the actual meal. As
Dow closes up more than 650 points, posting 3-day winning streak, as hopes for December rate cut grow reports, hopes for a December rate cut are indeed growing.
A broad rally took hold, encompassing everything from riskier stocks to value stocks. The only real laggards were in enterprise software, healthcare, and individual stocks hit by earnings results. This suggests a general optimism, a rising tide lifting most boats. But is it justified? Are investors pricing in a rate cut that may not materialize, or whose impact may be less significant than they hope?
I've looked at hundreds of these market reports, and the reliance on rate cut speculation always makes me nervous. It's less about real economic strength and more about… hope.
Cookie Notices and Market Rallies: A Strange Pairing
The Cookie Crumbles: A Data Footnote
There's also a strange, almost surreal, detour into cookie notices. The article includes a lengthy explanation of how Versant Media uses cookies and similar tracking technologies. While important from a privacy standpoint, its inclusion here feels… odd. It's like finding a detailed recipe for cranberry sauce in a report on the overall health of the economy.
The cookie notice does highlight the increasing sophistication of data tracking and personalization. Cookies are used for everything from basic website functionality to targeted advertising and social media integration. The level of detail is almost overwhelming, outlining how data is collected, stored, and shared with third parties. It's a reminder that behind every market rally, there's a complex web of data collection and analysis at play.
Could increased data collection and analysis be contributing to market volatility? Are algorithms and automated trading systems amplifying market swings based on subtle shifts in consumer behavior and sentiment?
A Sugar Rush, Not Sustained Growth
The market's Thanksgiving week performance is undoubtedly positive. However, the rally appears to be driven more by rate cut expectations and a general sense of relief than by concrete economic improvements. The broad-based nature of the rally is encouraging, but the lack of strength in sectors like enterprise software and healthcare suggests that underlying weaknesses remain. And the bizarre inclusion of the cookie notice serves as a reminder of the increasingly complex and data-driven nature of the modern market. It is all just a sugar rush, masking a deeper malaise?
